MCALLEN, Texas — State Rep. Christina Morales (D-Houston) believes that "on a good day," Democrats can flip the Texas House of Representatives in the upcoming Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Speaking with the Rio Grande Guardian following a Texas Legislative Progressive Caucus "People's Hearing" at the historic Cine El Rey in McAllen, Morales expressed optimism about her party’s chances of reclaiming the state legislative chamber despite steep structural hurdles following mid-census gerrymandering.
Morales, who serves as chair of the House Democrats Campaign Committee, acknowledged that while internal modeling conservatively predicts picking up five to eight seats, a larger surge remains entirely within reach. Democrats need a net gain of 14 seats to gain control of the 150-member body.
"The goal is absolutely to flip it," Morales said. "We have seen in two recent credible reports that there are about 20 districts in play. That would give us enough to flip and have some cushion... Conservative internal polls make us feel really comfortable about flipping five to eight districts, but on a good day, I believe that we will flip the Texas House."
A major cornerstone of the Democratic strategy this election cycle is fielding a candidate in all 150 House districts—a feat the party has not accomplished since 1972. Morales emphasized that contesting every seat creates grassroots momentum that supports statewide candidates like Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.
"It’s very strategic," Morales explained. "In communities where they never had a Democrat to vote for, now they do, and they have that person knocking on their door and dragging them to the polls."
Morales pointed to the 2018 midterms, where Democrats flipped 12 Texas House seats, as evidence that significant swings are achievable during a Trump presidency. She argued that the political environment is even more favorable now given lower approval ratings for former President Donald Trump and a far more organized infrastructure.
"This time around, we are far more organized," Morales said. "We have a candidate in every seat."
The push to flip the chamber carries high stakes for redistricting and voting rights. Morales sharply criticized the mid-census congressional and state redistricting pushed through by Texas Republicans at the request of Donald Trump, arguing it severely diluted the voting power of Black and Latino communities across Texas.
"They have literally gutted the Voting Rights Act, and so Black and brown communities are being cracked and packed," Morales said.
Morales pointed to her own region as a stark example. She noted how her Houston-area district overlaps with U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s 29th Congressional District, which saw roughly 60 percent of its traditional area carved up and attached to a distant Republican-leaning county miles away.
"In one Latino neighborhood in my district, Lindell Park, it is outrageous to me that that small neighborhood is now represented by three members of Congress," Morales said. "We have been cracked apart; we have been torn apart with a razor blade."
Morales stressed that flipping the Texas House is the only mechanism to prevent Republicans from further redrawing state Senate, state House, and congressional lines in future sessions.
Across South Texas and the state, Morales said voters are responding directly to everyday financial pressures—including gas prices, grocery costs, and local concerns surrounding data center developments—as well as the controversial private school voucher legislation passed by Republicans, which she warned defunds public education.
"Public schools are the central focus of every neighborhood," Morales said, criticizing state leaders for holding billions in the state’s Rainy Day Fund while local schools and working families struggle with costs. "Why are the Republicans holding on to billions and billions of our taxpayer dollars? Let’s use some of those funds and give them back to our communities who desperately need them right now, just to fill up their tanks."
In border and South Texas communities, Morales said immigration enforcement actions and aggressive ICE operations have created a severe climate of fear.
Morales referenced the tragic murder of her constituent, Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, who was killed in a neighboring district, highlighting how local families are suffering. She noted that fear of federal authorities has led to an estimated 10,000-student shortfall in local public school attendance as families stay home out of panic.
"I represent a hard-working community who is terrified to leave their homes right now," Morales said. "I heard stories of 14-year-olds now going to work so that their parents can stay home and wait until this blows over. People are afraid, and that is a huge issue because there are no longer people to work construction or restaurants."
Despite the challenges created by gerrymandered maps, Morales remains confident that voter dissatisfaction on core quality-of-life issues will drive a dynamic change in Austin come November.
