INEESH (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales) and the American Society of Mexico (AmSoc) just released "Mexico's Energy Dependence: An Analysis of U.S. Natural Gas Imports." It shows how deep our energy ties run—and how little cushion Mexico has if something goes wrong.
U.S. pipeline gas exports to Mexico grew from under 1 Bcf/d in 2010 to an average 6.77 Bcf/d in early 2026, hitting 7.34 Bcf/d in July and a record ~7.9 Bcf/d in August, according to Wood Mackenzie. That represents roughly 75% of Mexico's natural gas supply, fueling about 60% of its electricity generation.
A recent outage showed how thin that cushion really is. Between Sept. 29 and Oct. 4, pipeline issues cut gas flows to Mexico by roughly 20%. Mexico absorbed it, but CENAGAS’s (Centro Nacional de Control del Gas Natural) director noted the country could manage only three days if imports were fully interrupted because Mexico has zero domestic storage.
Still, this relationship remains a win-win. U.S. producers get a major customer next door, while Mexico gets natural gas at a fraction of global prices. Henry Hub sat around $3/MMBtu in early October, compared to mid-$20s for international benchmarks like TTF in Europe and JKM in Asia.
My take: we need to build a stronger energy-security cushion together. That means expanding cross-border pipelines, building storage inside Mexico, designating U.S. storage capacity for Mexican buyers, and upgrading Mexican port infrastructure. We should also expand cross-border power links—pairing them with solar and battery storage across the border region.
In terms of concrete action, Mexico should commit to more long-term U.S. energy purchases while replacing Chinese content in its supply chains with North American products and trusted partners like Taiwan. For our part, the U.S. should agree to a long-term USMCA extension to unlock long-term financing for infrastructure and advanced manufacturing and eliminate or reduce tariffs on essential industrial inputs like steel and aluminum.
Further connecting our energy, manufacturing, and technology supply chains helps the U.S. re-industrialize and win the AI race (while boosting U.S. energy exports), makes Mexico more energy-resilient, and builds a true Fortress North America.
Editor's Note: The above commentary was penned by Glenn Hamer, vice president of the American Society of Mexico. The commentary first appeared on Hamer’s social media pages. It appears in the RGG Business Journal with the permission of the author.
