MCALLEN, Texas - South Texas College economist professor Kevin Peek gave a presentation at the “CEOs Unite - Let’s Get Uncomfortable” summit.
The event, held Dec. 8 at STC’s Pecan Campus, was hosted by Hidalgo County Prosperity Task Force and Futuro RGV.
Peek said his principal objective in the presentation was to "challenge the predominant, largely negative, counterproductive and inaccurate narrative of the progress that we've made in the Valley over the last 25 years in three key areas, economics, educational attainment, and business investments.”
However, due to time constraints, Peek had to leave out his analysis on business investments.
“I'll begin by describing what I consider to be the predominant, but negative and counterproductive narrative of our economic progress over the last 25 years. I'll then demonstrate through the most recent economic data why this narrative is incorrect. After that, I'll do the same thing with educational attainment,” Peek said.
“What I'm hoping to communicate is that yes, there is a negative narrative. I think it's counterproductive. And I think it's inaccurate. And I want to challenge that narrative.”
With regard to economic progress, Peek said the overriding negative narrative is that “the Rio Grande Valley is trapped in a cycle of intergenerational poverty that is likely to worsen over the next decade without significant changes in existing economic growth and development strategies.”
“What does that mean?” Peek asked. “Well, I think that term intergenerational poverty pretty much sums it up. Intergenerational poverty is poverty transferred from one generation to the next to the next. And the obvious implication here is that we haven't progressed, we’re not progressing and we're probably not going to progress in the future.”
Peek said that is inaccurate. “I would say that in no way reflects what we've achieved, what we're achieving and where we're going in the future.”
Peek said a more realistic assessment is that the Valley has achieved a trajectory of economic growth and development over the last 25 years that has “transformed the region and is unprecedented in its size and scope in the 21st Century.”
Peek acknowledged that when he spoke to his colleagues at STC about this, and to his students about this, “their first reaction was, Kevin, that is sort of a naive, innocent, pollyannish interpretation.”
But, Peek argued, it is not and, in a power point presentation, he had the data to back up his claim.
“Let's just go back to the 1970s,1980s ,1990s, 2000. Where was our economy at that time? It was largely an agricultural based economy, characterized by limited socio-economic mobility, low wages, and inadequate opportunities,” Peek said.
“A decision was made at that time by community leaders to transform our economy largely by changing their economic model to make the transition away from an economy based on agriculture to one based on information, technology, education, innovation.”
Peek said that as a result of the change in the economic model, the region has been transformed.
“Since then, our area has lived through a major transformation that I would argue is unparalleled in the early part of the 21st Century. And I would challenge all of my colleagues, and all of you gathered here today, to identify a single community of comparable size and composition throughout the entire country that has achieved the same level of economic growth and development that we have over the last 25 years.”
Peek asked the audience to look at the data he was presenting in his power point.
“The data certainly bears this out. But if that's a realistic assessment of where we've come from, where we are and where we're going, why do we have this negative perception? What's the source?”
Peek answered his own question.
“There has been confluence of different factors. Studies coming from the public sector, different government agencies, departments, about economic conditions in our area, misconceptions I think that circulate within the private sector, but also misinformation coming from the media.”
Peek said hardly a week goes by in which the region is not “bombarded” with negative information. “Whether it's crime, which is highly distorted information, immigration, which is highly distorted information, or in this case, economics, which also think is highly distorted information.”
The problem with such reports is that they present only a snapshot, Peek argued.
“These and other snapshots are used to elaborate and perpetuate a narrative which is false. A narrative of intergenerational poverty. Once again, that we haven't progressed, we're not progressing and we won't progress. That's patently incorrect.”
Peek then displayed economic data to prove his point about the Valley’s trajectory being upward.
“Let's start off with unemployment. What we have achieved in the last 25 years in terms of unemployment is unparalleled in the rest of the country, period. Take a minute, go back to 1990, 25 years ago, what was the unemployment level in Hidalgo County, 25 years ago? Anybody want to guess? It was 21.3 percent in Hidalgo County. Where are we today? Seven percent.”
Twenty five years ago, Starr County’s unemployment rate was 28 percent, Peek said. Today it is 9.6 percent. Willacy County’s was 22.8%. Now it is down to 8.6 percent. And Cameron County’s unemployment rate is now only 6.2 percent.
“Can you identify a community of similar size and composition throughout the country that's achieved these kinds of results?” Peek asked.
Peek then looked at median household income in Valley.
Twenty five years ago the median household income in Hidalgo County was $20,856. Today it is $44,000.
"Those aren't the more important numbers. The more important numbers are the ones we see right beneath that look at the percentage growth over these (25) years in the Valley, compared to the rest of the country. We have increased median household income by 112 percent in the last 25 years. The average for the rest of the country is 87%. Wait a minute, aren't we trapped in intergenerational poverty? Aren’t we unable to move forward without help from somewhere else?”
Peek then ran through the median household income for the other counties in the Valley. In Starr County, over the last 25 years, median household incomes increased by 118 percent. Cameron County’s increased by 102 percent.
“Yes, we've got some problems. But that doesn't mean that this negative narrative of our progress is accurate. It is not. If you look at our trajectory, if you look at what we've achieved, not only is remarkable, but it's inspirational. And it lets us know that we have everything that we need to continue moving forward.”
Peek then looked at the poverty rate of the Valley.
“We know we have high levels of poverty in the Valley. That's no mystery to anybody. But let's take a look at our progress. Hidalgo County’s poverty was around 34.8 percent ten years ago. We brought down to 28.1 percent. Starr County’s poverty was at 43.6% ten years ago. Now it is down to 31.6 percent. Willacy County’s poverty rated was 40% in 2013. Today we're at 26 percent. And Cameron from 34 to 26.
"Obviously we have work to do. But these are some fairly impressive statistics. And, yes, I'm a broken record. So I'm going to say the same thing that I've been saying over and over and over again. There is a negative narrative about the last 25 years of progress in our area. And that negative narrative isn't accurate. A more realistic narrative is, wow, look where we started, where we are, and look where we're going.”
Editor's Note: Here is a video recording of Kevin Peek's presentation at the "CEOs Unite - Let's Get Uncomfortable" summit:
https://youtu.be/E1QX8N567d8
