Rogelio Sáenz is professor of sociology and demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. In his latest column for The Latino Newsletter, Sáenz looks at U.S. population estimates from Census Bureau .
Sáenz points out that Latino population growth fell by nearly one million in the latest Census estimates, with Latinos accounting for nearly two-thirds of the record 1.5 million drop in overall U.S. population growth.
“The most recent population estimates allow us to examine population trends for Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups and assess the impact of the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign on these groups. There were approximately one million fewer Latinos added to the U.S. population in 2024-2025 than in the previous year,” Sáenz wrote.
“Overall, the number of people added to the U.S. population between the last two years fell from 3.2 million in 2023-2024 to nearly 1.8 million, a drop of approximately 1.5 million people. All racial/ethnic groups experienced declines in absolute growth during this period. However, Latinos, with a total of nearly one million, accounted for nearly two-thirds of the 1.5 million fewer people added to the population compared to the prior year.”
Sáenz concluded his analysis by asking who are the nearly one million Latinos who are not in the country.
“They include babies who would have been here, but their mothers are no longer here, others who have left the country — some of these deported and others who opted to leave — and still others who, under prior conditions, would have immigrated here,” Sáenz said.
“As the analysis presented here shows, Latinos have been disproportionately impacted by the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign. Still, it should be emphasized that these most recent data cover less than six months from the beginning of the mass deportation operation (from January 20, 2025, to July 1, 2025). Updated population estimates for the period between July 1, 2025, and July 1, 2026, to be released in June 2027, will reveal a more complete portrait, undoubtedly demonstrating a rising impact of mass deportation on the Latino population.”
