As the end of 2025 approaches, countries, people, NGOs, businesses, etcetera get ready for next year’s challenges.
Of course, many summits and conferences will be taking place at several venues and much awaited negotiations on nuclear disarmament may develop not only at multilateral but at bilateral levels - mainly between the U.S. and Russia.
Speaking about Moscow, would the war with Ukraine could come to an end? What about Gaza? And Sudan? Will Haiti become/remain a failed state? So many questions, so little answers.
Yet, one of the most anticipated processes is the succession at the UN Secretariat, since Portugal’s Antonio Guterres will be finishing his second and last term and in the name of the advancement of women member countries have agreed on searching for a woman to lead the most important international organization. Also, there is a specific call for a woman from Latin America and the Caribbean, which has only produced one male Secretary-General in the past - Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuéllar from 1982 to 1992, more than 40 years ago. It is necessary to insist that in the past 80 years no woman has held the position of Secretary General, and this is the main argument for organizations like GWL 1 for 8 billion and to insist that nominees for 2026 be only women.
There is no guarantee that a woman would be elected, neither a Latin American. Why is that? Back in 2016 there was a commitment to empower women at the very top responsibilities of the UN Secretariat and thus prominent figures like Irina Bokova - at that time the General Director of the United Nations Education, Science and Culture Organization, UNESCO and also the then administrator of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and Helen Clark seemed like front runners. Then an article at Foreign Policy journal accused Clark of undercutting the UN's promotion of human rights, whereas Bukova was trapped between a political transition in the Bulgarian Government with the new one being less enthusiastic about Bukova’s candidacy. Then, the unimaginable happened: according to Russia, Germany decided to support another Bulgarian, Kristalina Giorgeva - at that time European Commissioner and current director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)- for the position. Under the rules of the UN, one country can nominate only one candidate, not two. The nomination of Georgieva would proceed only if Bukova resigned to her candidacy - which she did not. Thus, Antonio Guterres who had beenthe UN's high commissioner for refugees for the past 10 years, and was lauded in his crisis-management role for reducing expenditures on headquarters and staff by about half, while still maintaining, if not expanding capacity to handle ever-growing waves of refugees, was elected.
This episode reminds the world that there is no certitude about the forthcoming succession process. Besides with Bukova and Clark, another five women were potential candidates, but none got the job. This year, many great women have been already mentioned and even some are already official candidates endorsed by their respective Governments, such as Chile’s Michelle Bachelet and Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan. In Latin America and the Caribbean there are great expectations about these and other potential candidates such as Barbado’s Mia Mottley; Ecuador’s María Fernanda Espinosa; and two men, one Bolivian, former Vice-president David Choquehuanca and the current head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Argentina’s Rafael Grossi. Mexico’s Alicia Barcena, former Secretary of ECLAC and current minister for the environment has long been considered a potential candidate.
Outside the region, UN Undersecretary of dual British and Nigerian citizenship Amina Mohammed is perceived as a strong candidate. Same with New Zealand’s former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern -to many, the real front runner. Of course, all the women rumored as candidates, have strengths and some are more experienced than others on multilateralism and the United Nations System.
A quick look at the nationality of current and previous Secretaries show were born in countries considered “small” or perceived as “weak.” What Norway, Sweden, Myanmar, Austria, Peru, Egypt, Ghana, South Korea and Portugal have in common is that they do not pose a significant threat to the UN Security Council members with veto power -otherwise they would have never got the job. The mentioned countries lack strong military capabilities but have developed important diplomatic skills as a soft power tool to balance their limited hard power. For this reason, it is unlikely to see a UN Secretary-General from a “big country” say, like India, Indonesia, Nigeria or… Brazil - or even Mexico?
Besides that, the lessons from the 2016 election process must be learned because Bulgaria had two candidates, which is not acceptable, but worse, the European Union -and probably Russia- apparently sabotaged Bukova because they favored Georgieva for whatever reason. In other words: during the election process in 2016 there was no consensus woman candidate from the European Group.
As for the Latin America and Caribbean Group (GRULAC) is concerned, today there are many candidates and almost non-existent consensus on any of them. The fact that the Costa Rica and Chile Governments have already endorsed the candidacies of Rebeca Grynspan and Michelle Bachelet fractures the region. Barbados’ Mia Mottley could emerge as a potential black horse, although at the beginning of the year, a Caribbean candidate was chosen as Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Surinam’s Albert Randim -Surinam is considered a Caribbean country.
No other regional group has as many candidates as GRULAC, with seven. Although it is great news that so many Latin American names are being considered -or, say, in some cases, self-promoted for the job-, the region is very much polarized these days and that opens the door for candidates outside Latin America and the Caribbean to express their intentions and interests, taking advantage of the situation.
Let us take a look at Grossi and Choquehuanca’s aspirations. Despite being men, it would be difficult for Latin American leftist countries the endorsement of the IAEA chief being the President of Argentina a libertarian leader. Needless to say, Javier Milei has insulted Brazil’s Lula Da Silva so much, that there is no chance Brasilia could support Grossi. Choquehuanca is facing the return of a Conservative Government in Bolivia which reduces his chances to be promoted for the job. Now, let’s see the women: there is little chance for Ecuador’s Espinosa to be supported by Mexico since the two countries do not have diplomatic relations at this moment. Same applies to Mexico’s Barcena, who may not be supported by Ecuador, Perú, Bolivia, and Argentina, to mention a few. The “neutral” candidates, say, Rebeca Grynspan, currently in charge of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and Chile’s Michelle Bachelet may also suffer from this political fragmentation of the region, although, at some point, one may expect some common sense to secure Latin America finally returns to the UN Secretariat. Mia Mottley then may have some chances in case she gains the endorsement of much of the Caribbean countries for her candidacy.
But there are other obstacles. To become UN Secretary General a candidate requires the approval of the General Assembly and, most notably, the recommendation of the UN Security Council with the acceptance -or at least the abstention- of its five permanent members - say the US, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. Thus, the question is: of all the Latin American candidacies mentioned, is there at least one that suits the needs of the P5? This is very hard to answer.
Despite the need for a woman to become the next UN Secretary General, the Donald Trump administration seems to be more interested in loyalty than gender equality. To Trump, who has several women serving at his Administration, a woman at the UN is not the priority but to have someone ductile and malleable. Grossi seems to be, from the Washington point of view, the ideal candidate, since as head of the IAEA he has followed the path established by the United States in Ukraine and most recently in Iran. Russia does not like that and most probably neither China.
Now, despite the skills of Grynspan and Bachelet, they are not Trump’s favorites. Neither is Mexico’s Barcena, since during her term at ECLAC, she praised more than once the economic role of China in the region, and she also referred to Venezuela and Cuba in positive terms. Many in Washington believe Barcena is too much to the left, far from the United States’ interests. Of course, she may have the approval of China and Russia, but this is certainly not enough.
This leaves the scenario to an outsider, not from Latin America but most probably, from the European Group -again. Until now, Europe has been represented four times at the UN Secretariat with Norway’s Trygve Lie; Sweden’s Dag Hammarskjold; Austria’s Kurt Waldheim; and Portugal’s Antonio Guterres. It should not be forgotten that Canada, Australia, Israel and New Zealand belong to the European Group, so if Jacinda Ardern makes it, although her country is not located in Europe, her endorsement would have to come from that group. Of all the possible pre-candidates and candidates, she is the youngest - 45 years old - belonging to a new generation of politicians against people in their 60’s and 70’s who dominate as nominees and probably are too conservative and less proactive toward the reforms the United Nations needs. Ardern is also known for dealing with terrorism with empathy for the victims, privileging education and tolerance within societies, as witnessed back in 2019 after the Christchurch mass shooting. In face of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ardern put the people first despite the economic costs of closing the country, to fight the disease. This was the reason for her resignation -the economic costs of shutting down New Zealand-, but her popularity is enormous and because of her leadership today, the set for the Lord of the Rings movies is more than visible in the map’s world. A footnote is required here: Arden, when she was the Prime Minister of New Zealand had to travel to New York to deliver a speech at the UN General Assembly. She had had a baby three months before, thus, she decided to take the baby and her partner to New York. What followed is memorable: Ardern playing with her baby, breast-feeding her and changing her diapers at the General Assembly venue and then addressing the delegates whilst her partner was taking care of the newborn. She is also committed to women's rights, combating climate change and promoting unity and peace. With these credentials she seems the ideal candidate for the job. Yet many argue Ardern lacks experience in multilateral organizations and more specifically, the UN and thus, some people argue she would not be the right choice for the job and lots of bad comments with hate messages referring to her are already present at social media.
That said, can the United Nations finally smash its glass ceiling? Gender aside, the stakes for the next UN leader are especially high as the world body enters its next decade under heavy criticism while moderating two major world conflicts, facing challenges from the United States, and suffering money shortages in a polarizing, parochial and individualistic world. Thus, whoever becomes the next UN Secretary General, she/he is going to have a hard time. Or to put it in the words of the first UN leader, Norway’s Trygve Lie while resigning as Secretary General in 1953: it is - and will remain - the most impossible job of the world!
Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by María Cristina Rosas, a professor and researcher in the faculty of political and social sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. The column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Rosas can be reached via email at: mcrosas@prodigy.net.mx
