Next December 31, Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations will pass on the torch to his successor. Those interested in applying for the job must present their candidacies by April 1.
As of today, there are five registered candidates, four from Latin America, and one from Africa.
Although some others may participate, the prevalence of Latin Americans is understandable since the region has been represented only once - by a Peruvian, Javier Pérez de Cuéllar (1982-1992). Before and after him, Europe has been the dominant continent, having produced a Norwegian, Trygve Lie; a Swede, Dag Hammarskjöld; an Austrian, Kurt Waldheim; and a Portuguese, Antonio Guterres for the job. Africa has been represented twice, by Egypt’s Boutros Boutros-Ghali and Ghana’s Kofi Annan. Asia has algo got the job twice, with Myanmar’s U Thant and South Korea’s Ban ki-Moon. Since its creation, the UN has never been led by a woman.
This is expected to change. There is a commitment among UN members that the successor of Guterres should be a woman. This is why of the already five candidates, three are woman and two men. The first to be nominated by the then Government of Gabriel Boric was Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile and head of UN Women. Her nomination has been also endorsed by Mexico and Brazil. Then Argentina supports the candidacy of Rafael Grosi, General Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). On the other hand, Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has also been supported by her government. The fourth candidate is the former President of Senegal, Macky Sall, nominated by Burundi. More recently, the candidacy of Argentinian Virginia Gamba, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres' Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict from 2017 to 2025 was endorsed by Maldives.
One may expect that other personalities will raise their hands for the job. There is still time. For now, the fact that four Latin Americans are filling their applications is an indicator of the existing interest in the region, despite the enormous challenges the United Nations is facing today, to lead the institution. Yet, this also shows a divided opinion on who is the best candidate to represent the Latin America and Caribbean Group (GRULAC) in the race. More important is to determine whose candidacy may suit the five permanent members of the Security Council since it is this body, together with the General Assembly, that chose the Secretary General.
Except for Macky Sall, whose political career has been entirely in Senegal, the rest of the candidates have a lot of experience working at different UN bodies. This is of relevance since the successor of Guterres may need to know about the shortcomings and opportunities the UN possesses. This can only be understood from the inside of the institution.
That said, it is pertinent to analyze the résumé of the current candidates, as well as their strengths and weaknesses. To start with Michelle Bachelet, she is 74 and has had a prominent political career in her home country as Minister of Health, Minister of Defense, President and, outside Chile she led UNASUR as President pro tempore, then was Executive Director of UN Women, President pro tempore of the Pacific Alliance, and United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. As explained before, her candidacy was endorsed by the former Socialist Government of Gabriel Boric, and Mexico and Brazil. The new President of Chile, José Antonio Kast, who represents a significant right-wing shift in Chilean politics, has not endorsed Bachelet’s candidacy yet, although he recently met with her to “just talk.” Since Bachelet is a socialist, there is a chance Kast may not support her.
In favor of her candidacy one may argue she is experienced in dealing with key issues of the UN agenda such as human rights and women. She also has experience in leading other bodies in within Latin America. Yet, she is not well-liked by Israel, a key ally of the United States, since she has been a frequent critic of the Jewish state, which broke ties with her office in 2020 over her decision to implement a UN Human Rights Council resolution mandating the publication of a blacklist of companies engaged in business in Judea and Samaria and eastern Jerusalem. This may prevent the US from supporting her candidacy, apart from the fact that some circles in Washington consider her a communist.
Then comes her disastrous visit to the People’s Republic of China (PR China) in 2022 at a time when her office published a report indicating that Beijing’s detention policies in Xinjiang constitute crimes against humanity. Surprisingly, Bachelet visited the Asian giant that year and she failed to condemn the situation of human rights. Once in the PR China, she said no word about the government’s mass repression of the Uyghur ethnic community, its longstanding oppression in Tibet, and the attack on fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong. Her visit provided the Chinese Communist Party with arguments to deny its abuses and damaged recent efforts by activists and governments to push for justice.
The trip badly damaged Bachelet’s credibility. Access to countries led by repressive leaders can be important. But it was harmful that she openly ignored her mandate and turned her back on victims. What was she thinking? To many, she avoided the issue probably because she was hoping Beijing would do something for her in return. She also failed to condemn human rights abuses in Venezuela under the Nicolás Maduro regime. Contrary to that, she has been critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has stated that Russia’s indiscriminate shelling and bombing of populated areas in Ukraine "may amount to war crimes". So, no permanent UN Security Council but PR China may vote for her: the Westerners may veto her -US, United Kingdom and France- because she has been soft on the Asian giant. And Russia would veto her because she has condemned Moscow’s attacks and human rights violations in Ukraine. In brief, she seems to be in bad terms with God and the Devil.
Let us look now at Argentina’s Rafael Grossi. He is 65. His résumé is not as impressive as Bachelet’s. Grossi holds a Ph D in International Studies at the Graduate Institute of International Studies at the University of Geneva. After that most of his career has been as diplomat, first serving the Argentinian Foreign Service, and later as representative of his country at NATO. He also was Chef de Cabinet at the Organization for the Proscription of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) at The Hague. Then he was the representative of Argentina to the IAEO and since 2019 he is the Director General of the institution. His mandate was renewed for a second term in 2024. Yet his expertise seems to focus more on disarmament a relevant topic, of course, but the international community probably would like to have as Secretary General not only a woman but somebody who is more experienced in the UN System, including international security, human rights and the development agenda. Also, the fact that he does not have the support of Mexico and Brazil may prevent him from becoming the Latina America and the Caribbean (GRULAC) consensus candidate for the job.
Grossi’s tenure at the IAEO has been criticized due to its ambivalence. On the one hand, he has not criticized the Russian actions for creating security risks at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during the conflict with Ukraine. On the other hand, he has been very critical of Iran by arguing that inspectors analyzing nuclear enrichment levels have discovered uranium particles at unauthorized sites in the Asian country, suggesting its nuclear program is more advanced than reported. Teheran also complains that the Israeli intelligence services have used the IAEO reports on Iran to justify military actions. Not only that: the Iranian Government accuses Grossi of cooperating with Mossad. Criticism outside Iran includes institutions and specialist on nuclear nonproliferation who claim Grossi has done little to maintain a constructive dialogue with Iran on its nuclear program. Also, Grossi’s statements on the attacks of Israel and the US of nuclear sites in Iran lead many to believe he is not doing a good job. Last year and again in recent weeks, he maintained that there is no indication Iran's nuclear facilities were damaged or hit in the US and Israeli military strikes on the country.
That said, the US most probably may vote for Grossi as the next Secretary General and Washington may put pressure on the UK and France to support his candidacy. The UK with a long conflict with Argentina over the Malvinas Islands, may deny its vote for the IAEO chief. Russia may vote for Grossi, since he has avoided criticism on Russians attacks to nuclear facilities in Ukraine. And if Moscow says “da”, Beijing may also say 中国将把票投给格罗西.The heart of the matter is the war in Iran, since Grossi seems so close to the US view, that this may harm his chances to lead the UN. As some diplomats argue: if Grossi cannot stop the madness in the Middle East over the nuclear program of Iran, what could the world expect in case he becomes the UN Secretary General facing multiple conflicts and wars? Would he side every time with the US?
Now, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan is 70, and is of Jewish ancestry. Her résumé is somehow similar to Bachelet’s in the sense that she has hold political responsibilities in her home country as Vice-president and later joined the United Nations as Associate Administrator of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). She has also been Secretary General of the Ibero-American General Secretariat after which she became the Secretary General of UNCTAD in 2021. She is less known than Bachelet, but still, at UNCTAD she has gained some visibility, especially because last year the XVI UNCTAD Conference took place in Geneva where she presided and UNCTAD’s membership of 195 countries, although last January the US President Donald Trump announced his country would leave the institution.
She has the advantage of being Costa Rican, a small Central American country without army and in general terms more stable than its neighbors. Yet her candidacy may not be endorsed by Mexico and Brazil unless Bachelet loses the support of her own Government. What about the UN Security Council permanent members? To start with, when Russia attacked Ukraine back in 2022, Grynspan strongly opposed the Russian invasion, but she did more than that. She was a key negotiator in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, facilitating the export of grain from Ukraine to mitigate global food shortages. She was concerned about possible collateral damage of the war by increasing fertilizers prices. She also said that diplomacy cannot wait for perfect conditions to develop, that peace must be pursued constantly.
About the war in the Middle East, she emphasizes that the UN is still the best international body to address problems, and she claims to be “direct, honest, and evidence-based... There have to be reasons, not only emotions.” Since she is of Jewish ancestry she has clarified -for those raising eyebrows- that her great parents were killed at the Holocaust and that their parents escaped for Costa Rica with nothing.
She has been very careful about the conflicts in the Middle East as well as tensions in the Chinese South See, which may work in her favor by not colliding directly with the US or the PR China. Yet, her emphasis in the Global Development Goals and the 2030 Agenda, although is of great value, may not impress Trump, but the PR China whose focus privileges a Global Development Initiative where Beijing pictures itself as a model of developmental success and promoting these policies via the United Nations. Would the other Security Council members agree with her candidacy and her developmental agenda?
It is interesting to note that she considers world’s problems need the work not only of the UN and member States but the need to use the far greater capacities of civil society and the private sector in Global Governance. Before stepping aside as UNCTAD’s chief to continue her bid for UN chief she complained that the financial cuts made by Trump to international organizations requires UNCTAD to slash 70 jobs from its 500-strong staff due to donor financial restrictions. Thus, she is aware of the serious financial challenges the UN is facing and seems to be eager to explore collaboration with other institutions to sort this out.
The recent candidacy of Argentina’s Virginia Gamba has surprised some, given that Argentina has already endorsed Grossi’s bid. Gamba is 72 and is less known than the other Latin American candidates. Yet, she has a long history with the United Nations, where she has held various positions of responsibility related to peace and security, human security, and disarmament both within and outside Argentina.
Before beginning her career in diplomacy, Gamba was an academic lecturer and senior lecturer in Latin American Security Studies at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. She also served as an advisor to the Argentine Ministry of Defense on Civil-Military Relations and the Transformation of the Military under the Government of Raúl Alfonsín.
Currently, she serves as the Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Violence against Children, a position she also holds for the Secretary-General on Children in Armed Conflict. No one denies this is a critical issue that nations need to address. Yet there is the feeling that Gamba is too specialized and some question her knowledge about global issues and challenges the world is facing.
She has authored a number of very interesting books, a couple on the origins of the Malvinas War of 1982; another on strategy of intervention in crisis; and an autobiography called Chocolate in Budapest. Gamba has had an extraordinary difficult task in dealing with the seizing of Ukraine’s children by Russia. The thing is that the United Nations finds both Russia and Ukraine are listed as “situations of concern,” but only Russian parties are listed in reports, in the so-called “list of shame.”
In a related matter, the actions of Israel against children in occupied areas in Palestine, have been documented but Israel has managed to stay out of the annex of the “list of shame.” Gamba’s approach has been cautious and has avoided confrontation with both Russia and Israel. If she is serious about her bid for UN Secretary General, she needs to skip criticism on Moscow and Tel Aviv. Yet, her credibility may suffer.
As it has been reported in the media, during the current Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia has forcibly transferred almost 20 000 Ukrainian children to areas under its control, assigned them Russian citizenship, forcibly adopted them into Russian families, and created obstacles for their reunification with their parents and homeland. This is the reason the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for President of Russia Vladimir Putin (who has explicitly supported the forced adoptions, including by enacting legislation to facilitate them) and Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for their alleged involvement in these actions. According to international law, including the 1948 Genocide Convention, such acts constitute genocide if done with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a nation or ethnic group.
Gamba has lowered the tone of the accusations against Russia and has suggested better data is needed on both sides -i. e. Russia and Ukraine- but to many, she is not objective and intends to avoid confrontation with a UN Security permanent member country that may block her candidacy. The point is that in both France and the United Kingdom, the issue is very contentious and unless Gamba shows a more decisive stand on the issue she may not be eligible for the job according to London and Paris.
In addition to that, her candidacy was endorsed by an Asian country, Maldives and no Latin American nation has said a word about her neither for good not for bad. the Asian Group was of course not involved in Maldives’ decision, thus diminishing the strength of her candidacy. The other thing is that her agenda makes her very visible when it comes to children and war, but as the case of Grossi’s bid shows, there is the need for a wider approach pn the UN needs, challenges and tasks to be addressed from a comprehensive point of view.
Finally, the former President of Senegal, Macky Sall, whose candidacy has been supported by Burundi, is on the UN bid. He is 64, he is a muslim but opposes jihad and has met Pope Francis. Of the current five candidates for the job, Sall seems to be the person who knows less about the UN System. He has never worked for the United Nations programs, funds or specialized agencies. His entire political career has been in Senegal only, being President from 2012 to 2024. He claims to support women’s rights and has defended Senegal’s laws on homosexuality. He has met with several world leaders as President of Senegal and interesting, he has taken a neutral approach to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, abstaining from many United Nations resolutions concerning it. Wisely he has met with both Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv.
Yet the main obstacle he may face is that his candidacy has not been endorsed by the African Union, that has specific protocols to nominate Africans for different organizations. It seems that he avoided the African Union and took advantage of the fact that Burundi is chairing the institution this year to have the small African country as the one that presents his bid. To make it clear, the African Union does not seem to be in the mood of debating African candidacies at this point, and without denying there may be someone who is considered for the job, this is not Macky Sall. In fact, his candidacy has sparked divisions at the African Union and that weakens considerably his aspirations. In a sense, it is his personal wish to be considered for the bid but he lacks the experience even to go through the institutional channels within African institutions and the African Group to be nominated by the region his country belongs.
Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by María Cristina Rosas, a professor and researcher in the faculty of political and social sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. The column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Rosas can be reached via email at: mcrosas@prodigy.net.mx
