There is a long way to the November 5 Presidential elections in the United States, but as the day approaches, it has become clear that the most possible contenders will be Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
These veterans - Biden is currently 81 and Trump 77 - are the leading characters of an electoral process where other candidacies are quickly evaporating. So far, on the Republican side, the Florida Governor, Ron De Santis, has declined in favor of Trump. On the Democratic front, it does not seem possible that Marianne Williamson or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can really challenge Biden.
So here we are, with two well-known politicians who will re-edit the controversial 2020 presidential electoral process. How is this possible, one may ask? Well, to start with, Biden has worked on the reconstruction of most of the house in flames left by Trump. He has acted as a healer, in a sense. On the Trump side, he has been accused of a number of felonies, including sexual harassment, delivering false financial records of his companies, conspiracy and efforts to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election (including the shameful attack on Capitol Hill by his followers), the possession of national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, and pressures in Georgia to have the Electoral College votes delivered to Trump instead of - as they were originally cast - Biden. The result of all these felonies is that during Biden’s term, Trump has remained very much on the spotlight, yes for bad, but as someone used to say: “It’s better that people talk badly about you that not talk at all.”
Of all the charges Trump faces, there is one of relevance to Biden: the attack on American democracy and institutions. In fact, democracy has been the most important agenda for the Biden administration, not only due to confronting perceived authoritarian non-democratic and rival regimes in the world such as China’s and Russia’s, but mostly to internally deliver the message that democracy matters, that institutions are important. That is a key difference between the two: Trump despises institutions since he perceives they limit his room to maneuver. Instead, Biden is very attached to institutions and during his term he has made clear he will always stand by them.
On December 9-10, 2021, President Biden hosted a virtual World Summit on Democracy. The three key issues addressed on that occasion were defending against authoritarianism, addressing and fighting corruption, and advancing respect for human rights. Some leaders were invited to this summit, others were not. Then came the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in 6-10 June, 2022, attended by most of Latin American leaders but not Venezuela’s, Cuba’s, Nicaragua’s and, surprisingly Mexico’s. Mexican President President López Obrador criticized a summit that was expected to be inclusive. But, instead, Biden decided not to invite all the leaders of countries that belong to the region. Well, this meeting was very much about democracy in the Americas. Most recently, on March 29-30, 2023 President Biden co-hosted a second Summit on Democracy where issues such as partnering for democracy; a just and lasting peace in Ukraine; anti-corruption as a cornerstone of a democratic economy; the status of women and democracy; and very interesting, tackling hate-fueled violence as a threat to democracy, were discussed.
Yet democracy has been only one of the various challenges faced by Biden during his term. International events such as the war in Ukraine; the confrontation between Israel and Hamas in Gaza; even the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen, and last, but not least, the political crisis in Ecuador, combined with tensions with Mexico over migration and organized crime, and to make things, say, more interesting, there is the trade war with China too.
That said, the forthcoming presidential elections in the US are highly unusual, not only because the contenders would be the same as in 2020. This election, to many people, has been already decided - since the very moment Trump challenged the results of the 2020 elections. America, the paladin of democracy that rules that its political system is, by far, the best and more superior to all others, finds this paradigm questioned by one of the contenders. The impacts of this are already felt all over the world: take Javier Milei’s ascendance to power in Argentina, a character modeled on Trump, as an example. Do you remember Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro? What about the growing influence of the center-right and far-right political forces in Europe, that will likely have an impact in the forthcoming European Parliament elections in June?
For Biden, the electoral process in the United States will be mostly about the vindication of democracy and institutions. For Trump the question is whether he could get away with murder, or, say, with non-democratic behavior. Just to have in mind, next January 29, in Manhattan, Trump will be facing a trial on promoting a pyramid scheme on purpose; prior to the Super Tuesday - scheduled for March 5 - Trump will attend the 2020 federal election subversion trial; on March 25, Trump will have to respond at court about accusations of paying hush money for sexual favors to porn star Stormy Daniels, who says she had an affair with him; on May 20 the trial over Trump retaining classified documents at home in Florida will start. Summing up, all these trials will put much more attention on Trump and probably less on Biden.
What would Biden have to do to become more visible and attractive to the eyes of Americans as opposed to Trump? Is he already as doomed as James Cater was against Ronald Reagan back in 1980? Polls show little enthusiasm for the two candidates although somehow Trump seems to be taking the lead. What if Trump finally ends up in jail? Well, the US Constitution says nothing about running for President behind bars. He has already insisted on being a victim of political persecution by Biden and the Democrats. He sells himself as a martyr. Thus, at a time when institutions are under heavy scrutiny, the vote for someone seen as a victim of the political system may find its momentum. Trump may be perceived as a distorted version of the American dream: a presumed innocent felon who finds his way proving his innocence and becoming President. Sounds like a Hollywood film, huh? But quite possible.
Thus, Biden will keep a narrative about the relevance of democracy, institutions and the rule of law. Trump, instead, will attack all of them. If Biden is re-elected, the US will remain a highly divided country, but at least with some moral authority to say to others that democracy is not perfect though it remains the best way to contest power. If Trump wins, his victory may seal the decline of the American Empire and democracy all over the world would be damaged. And yes, the US would no longer have the moral authority to say to others that its political system is the best in today’s world.
Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by María Cristina Rosas, a professor and researcher at the Faculty of Political and Social Sciences of the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. The column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Rosas can be reached via email at: mcrosas@prodigy.net.mx
