The Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney addressed the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) last week with a remarkable speech, one of its kind. Carney said the old order is not coming back, referring to the time when the U.S. used to lead the world in a more responsible way. Then he urged middle powers to take the lead in world affairs since “when middle powers do not act together, at the table, then they are the menu.” He also expressed the support of Canada, an Arctic country, to Europe and Greenland, as a response to the continuous threats from the U.S. who intends to buy, either take over the giant island. He criticized economic sanctions by arguing that great powers use them as economic weapons against integration, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, and supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.
Carney was very diplomatic: he never mentioned Trump by name, but it is clear he was responding to the American President tariffs, accusations, and suggestions like telling Canada to join the American Union by becoming the 51st state.
Carney went on and insisted that "great powers" are defined as countries with permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council - China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States - which shows their economic and military dominance in the world. Instead, middle powers, such as Canada, Australia, Argentina, South Korea and Brazil, are nations that still exert large influence in global politics, even though their economies are smaller.
The voice of Canada’s Prime Minister made headlines not only at Davos, but also due to the announcement of a trade agreement with China, sending the message that now Ottawa deals with realities and not only with the world as it is expected to be. Once considered a boy scout, Canada is trying to shake off the U.S. interference on its domestic and international affairs. Of course, this caused Trump to get angry at Ottawa’s approach toward Beijing and threatened Canada with 100 percent trade tariffs in case Carney decides to make a move in the direction of a free trade agreement -which in fact would make the US to abandon the USMCA. Clause 32.10 of the North American agreement requires Mexico and Canada to notify the US in case one or the two intend to enter trade talks with a non-market economy, such as China’s. If the US administration is dissatisfied with the content of the trade agreement, it can then abrogate the USMCA. This year the USMCA is facing a revision process that promises to be a difficult one for the U.S. North American neighbors.
It is true Canada is very much isolated these days, not only because of the 51st rhetoric by Trump plus trade tariffs and the desire of the White House to privilege bilateralism over the trilateral USMCA. Europe has its own problems and despite being a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member, Canada has been under pressure to increase its military expenditure which ranks among the lowest within the Atlantic alliance, a topic that, in turn, has poisoned relations with the Europeans. To make things worse, relations with its other USMCA partner, Mexico, face so many challenges that one may wonder how can a country like Canada with a vast territory -the second largest in the world after Russia- and a population close to 42 million people -similar to the population of Mexican origin living in the United States- could survive without succumbing to the desires of Washington. The rapprochement with China is also a result of the perception in many Canadian provinces that probably the USMCA is in fact doomed and now it is necessary to diversify Canadian trade relations.
Yes, Canada suffers the consequences of its dependence on the U.S. market and American investment. But relations with China have been very painful for Ottawa too. On December 1, 2018, Meng Wanzhou, daughter of the founder of the Chinese multinational technology corporation Huawei, was detained upon arrival at Vancouver International Airport by Canada migration officers for questioning, which lasted three hours. The U.S. Department of Justice ordered her detention for extradition since according to it, she committed fraud in order to circumvent US sanctions against Iran. Meng was put under house arrest and after reaching an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice was released on September 24, 2021. In a movement considered a retaliation, China detained two Canadian citizens, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig on espionage charges. Kovrig was working for the International Crisis Group while Spavor had been a consultant and the director of Paektu Cultural Exchange, an organization that promotes investment and tourism in North Korea. It seems Spavor used Kovrig to pass him on information for the benefit of North Korea. Both were released right after Meng returned to China. Another retaliation measure was that China banned Canadian canola which hit hard farmers in the North American country.
In July 2019, China detained two dozen Canadian students accusing them of being part of a drug gang. On March 19, 2025, four Canadian students were executed for drug-related offences in the Asian country. Tensions with Canada have also escalated over human rights in Hong Kong and the situation of Uyghurs and Ottawa supported a boycott against the Beijing Winter Olympics of 2022 to punish China for these violations. Both in 2019 and 2021 Canada has accused China of cyber-attacks to interfere with Canadian federal elections.
Despite Canada’s conflicting relations with China, it is not surprising Mark Carney considers it necessary to change the mood with Beijing and promote a strategic relationship that may help Ottawa to ease tensions with respect to Washington. Unfortunately, Canada has been trapped in the crossfire of the US-China trade war and has been forced to side with Washington, although it has not benefited from it. As part of a potential agreement, China has promised to void visa requirements for Canadians and to lift restrictions for canola imports. Canada in return has favored imports of Chinese electric vehicles, a very challenging movement due to the existing automotive integration between Buffalo and Detroit.
Carney’s remarks at Davos made big headlines in Mexico, by reminding a long debate about the country as a middle power and the room of maneuver middle powers have. But what is a middle power? Why is Carney speaks about middle powers and their role in an unpredictable world where major powers act in irresponsible ways? After analyzing the problems Ottawa faces with the U.S. and China, one may ask if Canada is really a middle power. And what about Mexico? To start with, it is easier to explain what middle powers are not, rather than what they are. Middle power is neither a major power, nor a superpower. Middle power is not an insignificant country in world affairs. It has mostly soft power capabilities -including diplomacy, some political leverage, moral authority, economic and trade assets, cultural influence-, although it is vulnerable to major powers’ decisions.
Back in 2002 this author published a book about Australia and Canada as typical middle powers. The book was intended to analyze the concept of middle power and to feed the debate about the role middle powers play in a turbulent world. It was the beginning of the 21st century that abruptly started with the terrorist attacks against the United States on 9/11, 2001. The mood in the world was of surprise and horror: the country that won the East-West confrontation, that was expected to lead the world to security and prosperity, suddenly found itself attacked, showing itself so vulnerable that the rest of the world wondered what to do to anticipate terrorism and prevent the world from becoming a hostage of terrorist organizations.
Under those circumstances, the idea of middle powers taking the lead was widely debated everywhere. Countries like Sweden, UK, France, Italy, India, and even Brazil and Mexico were the subject of academic analysis, by considering they could have a positive influence in their respective regions and even globally in a number of topics like international trade and security, disarmament, cooperation, conflict management, etcetera.
Unfortunately, terrorism became so prominent in the world after 9/11 that other agendas were left behind, which paved the way for an expansion of threats to international security such as economic and financial crisis, organized crime, cyberwar, epidemics and pandemics, environmental degradation, human rights violations, natural disasters, etcetera, that were beyond the management of most countries. Middle powers looked well-intentioned but lacked muscle. Some suggested middle powers may join forces as like-minded countries to address global challenges. But middle powers are not exempted from rivalries -for instance Canada blocked Australia from becoming a G7 member country back in the 70s. The rivalry between Mexico and Brazil is well known in Latin America and this, in turn, has weakened the whole region in dealing with external debt, organized crime, trade and competitiveness, political concertation and cooperation.
Thus, even though Carney’s speech at Davos was extraordinary, it succumbed quickly against Donald Trump’s priorities. The countries mentioned by Carney as like-minded middle powers, did not come to the rescue of Ottawa, neither showed solidarity because they feared fire and fury from Trump. Still, some may believe another world is possible, but probably not at this very moment.
Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by María Cristina Rosas, a professor and researcher in the faculty of political and social sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. The column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Rosas can be reached via email at: mcrosas@prodigy.net.mx
