On behalf of the public and private sector members of the Border Trade Alliance (BTA), we write to strongly urge the Department of Commerce to maintain the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement (TSA) with Mexico.
Withdrawing from this proven framework would disrupt a critical North American supply chain, significantly raise food prices for U.S. consumers, and endanger tens of thousands of American jobs tied to the cross-border fresh produce trade.
According to a 2023 economic analysis1, a full withdrawal from the TSA and imposition of tariffs could result in average retail tomato prices rising by more than 50%, with prices for Roma tomatoes—heavily reliant on Mexican imports—more than doubling. Even in a more moderate scenario where imports fall by just 25%, consumers would still face average price increases of13%. With tomatoes among the most widely consumed fresh produce items in the U.S., this would represent a direct hit to American grocery budgets.
The consequences would ripple beyond consumers. The same study estimates that Arizona could lose $3.4 billion in economic output and more than 22,700 jobs if Mexican tomato imports are eliminated. In Texas, losses would exceed $4.5 billion in economic activity and more than 32,000 jobs. These impacts stem from the interconnected supply chains that span retail, distribution, transportation, packaging, and warehousing. Nationally, the stakes are even higher: tomato imports from Mexico underpin an $8 billion economic engine that supports nearly 50,000 U.S. jobs.
The Tomato Suspension Agreement has provided stability and predictability for nearly three decades, allowing American businesses to thrive and consumers to enjoy year-round access to a diverse array of tomatoes at competitive prices. Scrapping the agreement and reintroducing tariffs—as occurred briefly in 2019—would upend this stability, impose crushing new costs on small and mid-sized businesses, and encourage retaliatory measures that could spread beyond tomatoes.
Rather than dismantling this framework, we urge the Department to engage with Mexican counterparts and U.S. stakeholders to strengthen and enforce the current agreement where needed. The goal should be improved compliance, not economic disruption.
The BTA supports trade policies that are transparent, enforceable, and that encourage economic growth. A decision to exit the TSA would run counter to those principles, undermining decades of progress in U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade and harming the very communities that depend on cross-border commerce.
The BTA thanks you for your consideration of our views. Please do not hesitate to count on us a resource in cross-border trade should you have any questions.
Editor’s Note: The above letter was penned jointly by Pete Sepulveda, Jr., chairman of the Border Trade Alliance, and Britton Mullen, president of the Border Trade Alliance. It was sent to the Hon. Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce, on June 26, 2025.
